Storm Prediction Center Link for Convective Outlooks and more!
Before I dive in to this post, I just want to give everyone a heads up regarding the future of this blog (as I continue to build it). First, I have every intention of rotating my topics that I feature. I will talk about beer and roller coasters as much as I do about weather and sports. Some topics haven’t been hit on yet while this is my second weather topic. The obvious reason of that is, weather is always changing. And if the region is under possible severe weather, or a major severe outbreak is forecast somewhere, I will cover it on here. For that reason, as things evolve with weather systems, weather posts will be posted here.
Second, I’m going to post on a regularly scheduled basis on this blog moving forward. Blog posts will go up on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday & Friday (at 8 AM). Once I get my video production going on YouTube, I will be posting videos there on Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday at 8 AM (plus a few select Sundays). The Sunday Blog post will essentially just rundown the videos of the week. This allows me to always be getting content up on a regular schedule so you all know when it will be (though you won’t have to pay attention to the date if you just subscribe on the right. All we need is an email address). Of course, once again, the exception to this is in regards to weather posts. If the post is about an upcoming event, then it will break from the traditional schedule (much like today’s post, which is going up well after the 8 AM time). This is the perfect time to discuss the weather pattern of this week. In the future, even if a weather post goes up later on a day of posting, a traditionally scheduled post will also go up. If you haven’t read my “One Day in Paris” post that was posted yesterday, make sure you check it out! “One Night in Paris”, the sequel to that post, will go up this Wednesday at 8 AM (and make fun of the title of it all you want!).
With that said, we can return to the weather now. A rather active weather pattern will be in place across the Great Lakes region for the next couple of days. This will give areas a shot at thunderstorms as well as some severe weather. As I type this, even though today isn’t expected to be a big severe weather day, a few severe storms are ongoing in parts of Minnesota (particularly around Vineland and Mille Lacs Lake, just east of Brainerd). A line of showers is developing in North Central Illinois, just west of the Chicagoland area. Unlike the single cell storms (pulse storms) that we saw last week when it was hot and humid (and, in parts of Michigan, Illinois & Indiana when an air mass like that collides with outflow and the lake breeze, it creates those thunderstorms), these showers and storms will be a part of a system. A warm front will be moving through parts of the area today through tonight. While we can’t rule out severe weather, the risk isn’t super high. There is a 40-50 knot low level jet that will move through the area and we’ll have MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy) of around 1300 j/kg (average for the region). The storms will not be surfaced based and will rather be elevated as they edge out ahead of the front. Elevated storms (in which their formation is well above the surface) are common with warm fronts. Heavy rain and lightning (especially in parts of Wisconsin and Central Michigan) will be the man threats. Despite the higher MUCAPE, the band of CAPE is rather narrow, resulting in a low chance of hail. If any storm goes severe warned, it may be for hail (or maybe a collapsing thunderstorm causing damaging winds). For this reason, as you can see below per SPC forecast, only General Thunderstorms are mentioned for the region today, with the exception of a “Marginal Risk” for the area where the severe convection is ongoing in Minnesota. (Note: While I mentioned Wisconsin & Central Michigan above, everyone has a chance of seeing rain and storms this morning, afternoon & evening (with western areas being later in the forecast period). I only mentioned those because that appears to be where the heaviest activity will be later).
Now, heading into tomorrow is where things get interesting! SPC already has an area of Enhanced, Slight & Marginal Risk out for the area with every state in the Great Lakes region (with the exception of New York & Pennsylvania) seeing a risk for severe weather. Once again, like other forecasts, models aren’t completely in agreement with this system, so forecasts are all over the board. The entire region will sit within the warm sector, higher temps and higher dew points will lead to higher instability. Whether a cap ends up in place or not remains to be seen. The highest risk right appears to be for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, with the Twin Cities area being right in the focal point. With initial supercells, a tornado threat cannot be ruled out, but the dynamics will be favoring hail (especially large) at first. This is also where the greatest tornado threat of the system should be, though it does not appear super high at the moment. As the system evolves, it will feature an increase in damaging wind risk. Some models are showing the system forming into a bowing segment as it pushes into Michigan. We’ll have to keep an eye on this and a possible derecho as the system propagates to the east. For now, the SPC forecast is below and we will stick with that. Another post may go up tomorrow as the HRRR model begins to show the forecast window and we will also analyze what SPC and NWS are saying.
It will take the system some time to clear the area, with some severe weather possible from the Mid-Atlantic Region back through the Central Plains. Only Wisconsin & Illinois will be the Great Lakes states removed from the risk areas, with Pennsylvania & New York added. Michigan will see a threat of severe weather earlier in the day before the system clears the area to the South. Central Indiana, Illinois & Ohio will remain in the risk area (as seen below). This will also be analyzed further come tomorrow.
As always, forecasts area always evolving, things could start to favor one severe mode over another OR microscale changes could affect any development. Another post will go up tomorrow that will highlight what we have ahead for the larger severe threat based on the models at that time. Otherwise, any updates regarding possible severe weather today (if it should occur) will take place on Twitter. Make sure you follow along at www.twitter.com/universeofadv. Also, don’t forget about giving a follow on Facebook: www.facebook.com/universeofadventures.
Until tomorrow, “When clouds appear like towers, the Earth is refreshed by frequent showers”
Adventure Brett (or Forecaster Brett?)
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