Here we are, getting ready to begin Week 1 of the COVID Edition of the NFL Season. The Detroit Lions are opening up at home (Ford Field) against another NFC North Team, the Chicago Bears…another franchise that has been struggling recently, despite a 2018 playoff run that sputtered out in a loss against their now back-up quarterback Nick Foles (then of the Philadelphia Eagles). In this post, we will look at what we could possibly expect in this game and I’ll reveal who I think may win.
First thing to note, this is the first game of the season. Sometimes, this means a rocky start is expected with some franchises. Looking back to last year, the Detroit Lions started the season off with what should have been a simple game against the Arizona Cardinals and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. The game, however, ended in a tie when the Lions struggled to play through the second half. However, the Lions didn’t look like the “same old Lions” in the next four games that followed, beating the Chargers & Eagles before almost taking out both Kansas City (who won the SuperBowl) and Green Bay. It was after these losses that the injuries started adding up and the Lions began to slide. Got a little off track here, but what I was alluding to is, expect mistakes in Week 1 from both teams. Even with the Lions being more disciplined, experienced and finally on the same page with the coaching staff, it is still the first game. Add in the fact that there will be no in-person attendance as well as the uncertainties of playing in the days of COVID (many are just hoping that the season will be finished), and things will seem even more unnatural. If both teams come out swinging and this is a good game, then expect good things from both of these teams this season, because mistakes are expected. If they don’t occur, then both the Lions & the Bears may be powerhouses to watch out for this season.
Just looking at betting odds and projected stats, many analysts and odds sharks are expecting a fairly close game. Indeed, I don’t believe this will be a run away victory for either team by any means. I chalk this up to the previous paragraph…it’s the first game of the season. Many new players may still be trying to find their footing in the game scenario, despite performing extremely well in practices. The best understanding of how we can get an idea of what we can expect, we can look at both sides of the ball and specific players who could be playmakers this game. Of course, these are all projections and predictions, some of which could be bold. But, if it comes out this way, we could get the idea of who could come away with the victory.
Important to note here, a lot is riding on even just this first game. Without diving into how important this is for certain players (such as Trubisky), a lot is riding on this season alone for Matt Patricia, Bob Quinn and the Lions front office. The Lions have a new owner, but it is still within the Ford Family. The Lions were facing winning seasons and things changed when Patricia came in. He is in the hot seat along with Quinn for 2020…the Lions need to win and have a shot at the playoffs, plain and simple. Thankfully, that got a little easier for them with the new expanded playoff this year. However, the work is still there! Game 1 & 2 will be extremely important for the Lions because they just aren’t opening up and playing random opponents. They are playing the Bears & Packers, both in the NFC North with them. If they can squeeze off victories this early against their NFC North rivals, then it puts them in a better position to coast to the playoffs (where they will have to perform even better). The first two games are MUST WINS for the Lions to ensure a better chance later in the season. The Bears face off against the Giants in Week 2, out of the division. The Packers open up against the Minnesota Vikings, another NFC North Team, so they also have two back-to-back to deal with. If the Lions can come out victorious, they’ll be in good shape. They’ll be in even better shape if the Vikings manage to beat the Packers this weekend as well.
Now, we will dive into the Lions’ and Bears’ offense & defense to see who is playing and how things could unfold.
Quarterbacks: Mitch Trubisky will be starting at the QB spot for the Bears this Sunday, having beat out the recently acquired and experienced Nick Foles. Trubisky has had a rough patch recently with the Bears, but he isn’t a Quarterback I would count out yet. After all, he did help lead the team to the playoffs in 2018. Trubisky knows that his career is on life support, especially in Chicago, so he will come out swinging! Whether this means he will play extremely well or succumb to that pressure remains to be determined. Probably a little bit of both. Trubisky has the physical capabilities of an all-star QB, he just has to shutout any negative thoughts and let his skill takeover. It is 100% mental for him. And we know he can play well! Just last year Trubisky led the Bears to victory against the Lions in two of his best games of the year. Between both games, he combined for six touchdowns, a 73% completion percentage and over 500 yards. However, there are a few things that helped Trubisky reach those numbers. First off, Detroit had a much weaker defense at that time that was also facing some injuries (lets note here though, we don’t know how well the Lions defense will fair this year. We assume they will be better but, as far as we can see, they are still rebuilding). Second, while the Bears put up great numbers, they only beat the Lions by 8 the first game, when the Lions struggled to put points on the board with backup QB Jeff Driskell and settled for too many field goals. They went on to only beat the Lions by 4 the second game, as the Lions utilized their third string QB, David Blough, who played an amazing game. I think you see what I am trying to get at here. Trubisky played great because he exploited the defense, but the Lions also struggled to respond, despite almost pulling out a victory the second game with a backup quarterback. Note what both games had in common though…a Lions backup QB. That brings us into what the Bears have going against them possibly this weekend….enter Matt Stafford
Matt Stafford was putting up MVP numbers last season before being hurt in the November 3rd game against the Oakland Raiders (its going to be weird not saying Oakland anymore), effectively ending his season. This year, Stafford is going to play his heart out. Lions fans are looking forward to having him back and, if he plays like he did to start the season last year, the Lions will fair well, as long as the rest of the team can step up to the plate too. Stafford is a very agile quarterback, hes got an arm and he is accurate. He is also not afraid to scramble and take a hit for the first down (which is a blessing and a curse, because this increases the risk for injuries too). Also, generally, the more angry Stafford gets, the better he plays (take us back to the Kansas City game for example, his face spelled it out, clear as day). He has the physical and mental capabilities of an all-star QB and that may shine this year. Stat for Stat, Stafford is the better quarterback in this match-up, but that is also just one position. Stafford will, more than likely, come out shining, and with his same core receivers plus the addition of Quintez Cephus, damage can be done. Just with Marvin Jones, Jr. and Kenny Golladay, expect a big passing game this weekend. Stafford and the receiving corps performed well under Darrell Bevell’s new offense, and I think they are prepared for more secret weapons this season. Just late last week, when Head Coach Matt Patricia was asked about how Stafford was doing in practice, he said he was “dialed in” something teammates confirmed. A dialed in Stafford is dangerous to any opposing teams. Of course, this position hinges on one thing…how well the line can protect Stafford.
Offensive Line: The Detroit Lions Offensive Line saw a rather large shakeup this season. Last season, the O-Line did a pretty good job at protecting Stafford and giving him enough time to complete passes before injuries shook up the line as well. Experienced linemen Rick Wagner & Graham Glasgow were shipped away from the team this off-season. This means that the O-Line will be relatively new at playing together. The hope is, that they have enough chemistry. The Lions drafted the O-Line fairly well, drafting both Jonah Jackson (Ohio State) & Logan Stenberg (Kentucky). Both played well during their college careers, and Jackson’s protection helped Ohio State make it to the playoffs. The Lions also signed free agent Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who won a SuperBowl in Philadelphia. Vaitai has faced his fair share of injuries, which we hope won’t be an issue in Detroit. Assuming this new corps can get communication down pat, they could be a good front to protect Stafford long enough for the big plays while also clearing holes for the running game. However, this remains to be seen and we’ll have to keep an eye on how they play this weekend. As long as they remain healthy, they should be good. Lets just hope injuries don’t plague the line like they have the last few seasons. We also should mention T.J. Hockenson here, who will matter big time when he has to block. He provided good protection last year and he bulked up in the off-season, so I expect him to be an even better blocker this year (hopefully with less penalties)
The Chicago Bears offensive line didn’t fair too well during the 2019 season. They’re returning four of their five from last season, however, including Pro-Bowlers (2018) Charles Leno, Jr & Cody Whitehair. The team is fairly certain that injuries is what hindered their ability to play well last season. With the majority returning, we can see if that is true. We’ll also see how well they perform under new Offensive Line Coach Juan Castillo, who is no stranger to the NFL, entering his 25th year as a coach. Point blank, the O-Line will have to give Trubisky enough time to pass, especially with the new weapons the Lions have up front. I don’t expect a big running game from the Bears, at least against the Lions in Week 1…so the O-Line will have to step up their pass block and not return to 2019 numbers in order to pull off a victory. If they even just let one or two sacks to occur, it could screw Trubisky over mentally, leading to more than just first game mistakes.
This leads us into the the discussion of Defense:
The Detroit Lions Defense appears to still be rebuilding, but we are expecting them to do better than last year, even with rookies. However, no matter who is playing, the Lions will be missing a big part of their defense in previous years, Darius Slay. Slay, who was a big player in Detroit and one of the best corners in the league, was traded to Philadelphia for a pair of draft picks during the off-season. While the Lions drafted really well, a lot will have to be done to make up for not having Slay on the defensive side. Enter Jeff Okudah (cornerback), the Lions first round pick from Ohio State. Okudah put up impressive stats in his three years at Ohio State and will do great with the Lions. If Okudah can transfer well to the NFL, then he could be an offense’s worst nightmare. Even if he doesn’t get an abundance of playing time against the Bears, I expect Okudah to get a decent amount of playing time. I’ll even go out on a limb and predict that he may even get his first NFL pick in Game 1 (a panicky Trubisky could lead to interceptions). That would be a heck of a way to start the season. The Lion’s also drafted Defensive End Julian Okwara (Notre Dame) in the third round of the draft). He joins his brother, Romeo Okwara, who is also a defensive end for the Lions. If Julian performs like he did in college and performs at the level his brother did in 2019, then expect these two to be nightmares when on the field (assuming Romeo puts up better stats). Against the Bears, I expect the two to flip back and forth at the Left Defensive End position, meaning that no matter what, you my get hit by an Okwara. This is all without mentioning Trey Flowers, who is a very viable and serious threat to any backfield, but could also prove to be Trubisky’s worst nightmare. Free agency wise, the Lions also picked up some major weapons in Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins Sr., Desmond Trufant, Jayron Kearse and Duron Harmon. The Lions will have a really good Safety corps on this defense, and we’ll have to see how the corners unfold overall, especially with Christian Jones & Reggie Ragland taking turns. What we really have to focus on is the front seven. We know we don’t have Slay anymore, but the defensive line has improved tremendously, and add in Okudah’s ability to stop run plays, some teams may struggle on the run, especially with the defensive ends we have. But how we play against the pass, and specifically how Okudah plays in Detroit’s coverage scheme, will determine if we have a solid defense this year or not. This will also be a big year because Matt Patricia, who was a terrific defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots, will have less say in the defense than he has in recent years. Instead, he will be relying on new Defensive Coordinator Cory Undlin, who has major experience with defensive backs and won a SuperBowl in Philadelphia.
We won’t go too much into the Chicago Bears’ Defense because we all know they have a solid one. They are not in the process of rebuilding and they did a good job at holding back our backup quarterbacks last season, for the most part. The question is, how will they perform against the Lions this year? While I think the Lions will have the ability to go ballistic on passing against the Bears, we have to pay attention to what is going on up front. And there is only one name I need to mention….Khalil Mack! He has a reputation for being a game-wrecker and is, without a doubt, one of the best defensive players out there. Looking back to last season, however, his production dwindled a bit. In fact, he didn’t even chock up one single sack against the Lions last season. However, as we stated previously, the Lions have some new players on the offensive line. One can hope that the new players could lead to the third game shutdown, but they’ll have to protect Stafford at all costs from Mack in order for the Lions to pull off a victory.
Moving back to offense, we’ll focus on the Running Backs now. Detroit has a talented backfield on paper and even added more to it with the one-year contract they just signed with future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Peterson. While D’Andre Swift (the Lions’ second round pick out of Georgia) remains questionable for the game, he is still the favorite to start. However, we could really be looking at a dangerous backfield heading into game one. After spending the money on Peterson, the Lions will want to utilize him right away. Of course, he is more so in Detroit in a mentor role, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be a big weapon to use on the field. Before the signing of Peterson as well as Swift being questionable, not to mention that, at least in previous years, the Detroit style offense favored the gun-slinging passes of Matt Stafford, I would’ve told you that neither team would have a single back break 80 yards. However, if utilized correctly, and rotating in carries between Peterson, Swift and Detroit favorite Kerryon Johnson, I predict the Lions may be able to have a player reach 80 rushing yards. I do predict that, combined, they will rush for over 100 (they will more so collectively run as a team). However, we do still expect the offense to favor the pass while the running game will help open up that pass game and gain a few yards. We should also mention that Adrian Peterson and Darrell Bevell are now re-united! Bevell knows how to use Peterson and Peterson also trusts Bevell’s calls…it is entirely possible that Peterson could really break for big runs if he gets enough carries.
The Detroit Lions maintained their terrific receiving corps and even added fifth round draft pick Quintez Cephus from Wisconsin, a player who has impressed in practice and may be a secret weapon for the Lions. Cephus joins the experienced Lions receivers of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Jr & Danny Amendola. Not to mention other great receivers on the roster such as Marvin Hall and Jamal Agnew, both of whom will be active against the Bears. Even without the addition of Cephus, the Lions have gone gangbusters with the three veterans mentioned above, especially with Stafford playing. In fact, Golladay led the league in touchdown receptions last year, with 13. Note that he played with a backup quarterback for a good portion of the season too. No doubt that the number would have been higher had Stafford still been playing. This receiving corps is dangerous if they get out in the open. Amendola will be there when it really matters, but I believe that both Golladay and MJJ will both break 100 receiving yards. Add in the threat of T.J. Hockenson, who could be big in the red zone, especially with his bulking up after last year, and the Lions receiving game could be all they need once again.
Looking at the Chicago Bears side of the ball, they have a more experienced David Montgomery as well as Tarik Cohen. Just like Swift with the Lions, however, Montgomery remains questionable for Week 1, meaning Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall may face more snaps this game. Even with Montgomery healthy, I also don’t predict that any running back will break 80 yards. It’ll be a team effort like the Lions. However, I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Lions may have an effective stop against the Chicago run game and hold the team to less than 100 rushing yards altogether. This means it will be a battle in the skies, where I also think the Lions will have the Bears beat. Once again, it all depends on how good the new defense can play against the Bears receiving corps, which faced issues in 2019 but still performed well against the Lions. It really hinges on the Lions’ defense and how well Trubisky performs.
My Prediction: The Lions won’t be the same ole Lions. The Bears also won’t be the same ole Bears. The Lions will average more yards per play than the Bears and rush for more than 100 yards on the ground while putting up passing yards around the 250 to 275 range. The Bears barely break 200 passing yards and rush just a little over 90 yards, but still get a solid effort from Trubisky, who I still think will have a good season overall. The Lions will punch it in a few times and Stafford, while not putting up as impressive of numbers as last year, will still perform great for Game 1 (he’ll pick up as the season goes on). They also won’t rely on Prater too much, though he may have to squeak out a a field goal or two, thankfully he’s great at those. The Lions end up with an early start and go on to win the game as the Bears struggle to open up their run game. Final Score 21-17 with a Lions victory at home.
Tune in at 1 PM EDT (12 PM CDT) for what will prove to be a pretty entertaining game. We will have a recap up on Monday morning.
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-Adventure Brett