The image above is a snippet from my GRLevel3 Radar. Storms are building fast!
I’m going to try to make this post as short and to the point as possible seeing as severe weather is already starting to form in the region (even though it’s still fairly early). Today’s event is coming on the heels of yesterday’s event, in which numerous wind damage reports were reported in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio (with Illinois seeing a tornado as well). While that had to deal with Cristobal, today’s system is coming on the bottom side of Cristobal. While Cristobal has an influence on this system (plus our air mass in place), this shortwave and associated cold front are extremely powerful.
Already, storms are rapidly firing in the southern Chicagoland area. This is farther west than anticipated and in the marginal risk. These storms will continue to build and intensify. Radar is already picking up some small hail and winds around 70 miles per hour within these storms. The storms firing in SW Michigan also have some small hail associated with them. This is where we will have to watch for storms. Anything out and ahead of these could pose danger.
Quick Synopsis: Remnants of Cristobal continue to push into Ontario. A negatively tilted trough is shifting northeastward in the Great Lakes region direction. This trough has a compact vorticity max and there is a trailing cold front at the surface. The cold front will be the main focus for severe activity. Deep layer sheer will increase to over 50 knots in conjunction with a mid level speed max of 80 knots as it creeps its way into area. MLCAPE (Mean Layer Convective Available Potential Energy) could reach 2000 j/kg prior to the storms hitting. With the way everything is looking, all severe hazards are possible.
First area to watch is this area in the Chicago area. This is where wind damage will be the largest threat. Any cells that form ahead of the line could become supercellular, posing a larger tornado and hail threat.
A Moderate Risk for Severe Weather is out for parts of Central and Eastern Michigan (including Detroit, Lansing and Battle Creek areas) as well as Northwest Ohio (including the Toledo area) while an Enhanced Risk is out for Southwest Michigan (including Kalamazoo & Grand Rapids), Northeast and East Central Indiana (including the Eastside of Indianapolis & Fort Wayne) and a good chunk of Ohio (including Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Akron areas). A Slight Risk surrounds these areas.
The primary risk will be the damaging winds, and SPC reflects that in their outlook, but I don’t want to get caught up in semantics. Simply, all modes of severe weather are possible and everyone should have a way to get warnings. Keep an eye on these storms as they move into the area and continue to develop.
As I type, Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for Southern Michigan, indicating that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued soon.
As always, follow along on Twitter for the most up to date information, including tweets regarding warnings. Following your local NWS Office on Twitter is never a bad idea either. Pay attention to news media and make sure you have an app that keeps you in the know when it comes to warnings. Following on Facebook is a good option too. These storms today will form quickly and move quickly…they could also drop tornadoes quickly if they do. Always look to see what could be in the area in the next hour or so.
Remember, heed all warnings and have a way to get them! Today’s storms will mean more business than the ones yesterday. MyRadar is a good app to warn you.
The next post will be that Paris post. It isn’t getting delayed any longer!
Until tomorrow, “When clouds appear like towers, the Earth is refreshed by frequent showers”
Adventure Brett (or Forecaster Brett?)
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