Here we are on Wednesday morning, five days after the storm system that affected many parts of the Great Lakes Region on Friday afternoon and evening.
Not surprisingly, the forecast was almost spot on (check my blog post out). If you look at the storm reports below, you can see the wind reports line up almost perfectly with the Enhanced Risk (also included below). The conditions definitely did come together to create a higher than slight risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Thankfully, they weren’t more violent than they were. Part of that could’ve been because instability didn’t reach its highest potential, but it still did reach high enough potential to fire off some pretty dangerous storms.
Storms initially began to form in Northeast Iowa around 12:30 PM Central Daylight Time on June 26th. The storms continued into Southern Wisconsin, causing more wind damage. The main part of the system, began forming around 4:30 PM in Northwest Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, before the first severe report was reported at 5:20 PM CDT in Ogle County, Illinois. This was for ping pong sized hail (and, surprisingly, was the only hail report from this system. This actually matches up with the forecast too because wind was always the higher threat and hail would be among the lower risks, as my forecast post stated). As you can see, wind reports were very common in this region as the storms built towards the Chicago Metro Area. These storms were mostly showing wind, but one supercell (that built itself into the line eventually) formed near Dakota, Illinois before moving towards Pecatonica & Winnebago that had some decent rotation with it (and the NWS Office in the Quad Cities did issue a tornado warning).
However, the main focal point of this post will be as the storms moved into Western Michigan. This could have been an area where a small, short-lived tornado may have occurred. The storms that affected the Chicagoland area continued to have severe wind reports with them, some exceeding 65 mph (with one near Addison in DuPage County, reaching 71 mph). There was also a plethora of wind damage reports as the storms continued their journey east. By this time, the environment in West Michigan was primed for severe weather, and the storms did not appear like they would weaken as they moved their way over Lake Michigan. With this, the Storm Prediction Center coordinated the following Severe Thunderstorm Watch with the National Weather Service Offices in Grand Rapids, Northern Indiana, and Detroit/Pontiac.
As the storms approached the shore, they actually began to rapidly intensify. Just off the shore of Van Buren County in Michigan, the storms began showing multiple areas of rotation and a classic “bow structure” south of the rotation areas. A bow echo on a thunderstorm generally correlates with higher wind speeds. As the storms moved on shore, the rotation south of South Haven continued (at one point getting stronger before weakening again). As it moved near Covert, the rotation had gotten stronger once again. This rotation had finally disappeared as it approached Almena. We’ll return to this part of the storm in a little bit. For now, we are going to shift our focus to the south, where something else started to become evident on radar. As the storm moved onshore, the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Van Buren County. They had mentioned winds in excess of 60 mph and that a tornado was possible (the rotation was evident on radar in the areas mentioned above as I said, but it was very broad and it would go through phases that wasn’t worthy of a tornado warning at the time). One thing to understand is that tornadoes in these systems are relatively unpredictable. They could occur and disappear before even being recognized by radar. These storms usually occur in rotation embedded within the thunderstorm line or in “kinks” that appear within the leading edge of the line. The Storm Prediction Center did say that the greatest severe wind and brief tornado threat would be within the area the storm was forecast to affect, roughly west of the Calhoun/Jackson County line all the way to the lakeshore (as pictured below in their Mesoscale Discussion).
As the storm began to move through Van Buren County, the storm began to pivot around where the rotation in the storm was. The southern part of the storm as it approached Paw Paw began to bow out more (as seen on the radar image below). On velocity scans, you could clearly see that it began pushing out really strong winds. At 9:27 PM, the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids issued a rare but dire warning for Kalamazoo County. This warning called for 85 mph winds and kept the wording for a possible tornado. They called it a “dangerous storm” and a “life threatening situation”. You can see the full warning impact statement below.
As the storm moved through Kalamazoo County, it kept its crazy intensity, but no winds were recorded exceeding 75 mph (though it is possible that many of these systems could’ve been down as many ASOS stations didn’t report anything). A 68 mph gust was recorded with the southern storm as it moved through Buchanan in Berrien County, and it is expected that winds in this northern storm could’ve been stronger. Either way, numerous damage reports were reported between Van Buren & Kalamazoo Counties. Anything from power poles down to large trees and even an amateur radio tower down. Some homes faced some damage as well, mostly outdoor cosmetic damage caused by the high winds and trees falling. This did show that the winds were intense within this line of storms as it moved through, weakening before they moved into Calhoun County (but still maintaining winds above severe limits, 58 mph, as the warnings continued down I-94).
Daylight the next day really showed the damage the storms had caused. The damage was widespread, which continued to point towards that straight line wind damage, especially in the southern part of the storm. However, my attention was quickly drawn to an area near Covert, where I had seen that rotation on radar. There were pockets of damage within this area that didn’t fully point to straight line winds. Instead, the damage was isolated in nature, seeming to start and end quite quickly. It was also was very narrow.
It is quite possible that this was a tornado. However, I am just going off of these overhead images. The National Weather Service is still surveying the damage to determine if a weak tornado could’ve caused it. Now, remember, this was near Covert, rotation had been seen on radar. So it is quite possible this was a tornado. It’s really going to come down to if there was a twisting motion or not seen in the forest. Generally, straight line winds will cause trees to fall in the same direction and is really widespread (you can see on the radar image I posted previously how much the storm bowed, the wind damage in forests would be seen in many areas in the storms path). In this area of the storm, a microburst/downburst could’ve also occurred (they can be narrow, but this one just seems weird shaped). The fact that all the trees are facing similar directions makes me think wind (tornadoes generally will have them thrown in several different, though, if you do note, there are some that fell in different directions, meaning slight rotation could’ve caused it), the one thing that stands out is the size and scope of the damage (along with the fact that some trees managed to remain standing in the middle of the damage field). It’ll be interesting to see what the NWS determines, because it definitely is interesting to look at. But looking at the damage from ground level will be the determining factor and I will agree with what they find.
In the end, it is possible that a small and weak tornado could’ve occurred here. Maybe multiple did. So, any people are probably asking “Why didn’t they issue a tornado warning?” This is a complex question. As I stated previously, tornadoes within these storm lines are very hard to predict. NWS has certain criteria a storm must reach (and certain amount of radar scans) before issuing a tornado warning. The rotation on this storm was strong over the lake but then continued to fluctuate majorly, from almost disappearing to being strong again (by strong, I mean strong for this type of storm system, nowhere near strong compared to a couplet seen during a supercell thunderstorm). NWS made the call (and I do believe it was the correct call) to issue a severe thunderstorm warning for Van Buren County and added the “tornado possible” tag, indicating that a tornado could form quickly within this storm. This, hopefully, would get people on heightened alert, but not doing the “cry wolf” scenario that people clobber the NWS about. Unfortunately, it’s a double edged sword. The NWS doesn’t want to appear to cry wolf when tornado warnings are issued, they’re issuing the warnings in the name of safety. Sadly, when a warning is issued and a tornado doesn’t occur (or it doesn’t directly affect someone), the mindset changes to “oh, its a tornado warning but its ok, they never come”. This is a very dangerous mindset to get into and it is part of the reason that the Joplin tornado was so bad.
At any rate, NWS made the right call based on the weak rotation returns in the velocity scans and the fact that this tornado (if it is found out to be a tornado) could’ve occurred without radar even realizing it. NWS did communicate in the NWS Chat with WOODTV (who remained on the air during that time because of the rotation, despite no tornado warning) that they were keeping an eye on it. I guarantee you that if it would’ve hung around for another two to three velocity scans, that they would’ve issued a tornado warning. Even so, a brief tornado threat pales in comparison to the tornado like wind speeds that were occurring in the southern part of the county. Their impact based warning for Kalamazoo County’s severe thunderstorm warning covered both bases of tornado warning & severe thunderstorm warning…it was enough to convince people that the storm could be deadly (and it worked, because people listened and no injuries were reported). The winds, without a doubt, were the most dangerous part of this storm and they were not associated with a tornado.
Once the surveys are complete, not only will we know if a tornado occurred, but we’ll also know what wind speeds we really did see in the areas where damage was reported. The National Weather Service, especially the Grand Rapids office, is very good about carrying out these surveys and they make sure that no details are missed. Once they are finished, I will discuss their findings here on the blog. The surveys will be completed later today, but for now, you can see the graphic below they released last night related to findings (and possible 95 mph gusts near the shoreline is insane).
Until next time, “When clouds appear like towers, the Earth is refreshed by frequent showers”
Adventure Brett (or Forecaster Brett?)
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